Bashar al-Assad's 13-year grip on Syria has come to an unexpected end. On December 8, 2024, a rebel coalition stormed Damascus, capturing the capital in a rapid advance that caught both supporters and critics of the Syrian regime off guard. The downfall of the Assad family dynasty, which had ruled Syria for over five decades, can be traced to a precise set of factors—an exhausted military, fading alliances, and shifting regional dynamics.

Timeline of Events

  • November 27, 2024: Rebel forces launch a large-scale attack on Assad's forces in western Aleppo, seizing 13 villages, including strategic towns and Base 46, the largest regime army base in the area.

  • November 30, 2024: Rebels take control of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, in a lightning-fast offensive. The Syrian army begins retreating, acknowledging the presence of "large numbers of terrorists."

  • December 5, 2024: Rebels seize Hama, a strategically crucial city connecting Damascus and Aleppo. Videos show fighters celebrating their unexpected progress.

  • December 6, 2024: Rebels capture Daraa, the birthplace of the 2011 uprising, and advance toward Homs. The regime’s forces face attacks from multiple directions, forcing withdrawals.

  • December 7, 2024: Rebels take Homs, marking the liberation of several cities, including Daraa, Quneitra, Suwayda, and Homs, within 24 hours. Residents celebrate the regime’s retreat.

  • December 8, 2024: Damascus falls to the rebels with minimal resistance. Assad flees to Russia. Rebel leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani declares victory from the Umayyad Mosque, marking the end of 50 years of Assad family rule.

The Military: Hollow and Defeated

Assad’s military, once the backbone of his regime, was a shell of its former self. By the time the rebels launched their final offensive, Syria’s army had been decimated—over half its 300,000-strong force lost to casualties, defections, and draft evasion. What remained was an underfunded, poorly motivated force incapable of resisting the opposition’s well-coordinated push. Corruption and poor management left critical equipment—tanks, planes—non-operational, further undermining any remaining resolve. In this context, the army’s failure to hold key cities like Aleppo and Hama signaled the regime’s collapse.

Hezbollah, Assad’s most loyal ally on the ground, has also seen its influence wane. The Lebanese militia, which had sent thousands of fighters to support Assad’s regime, has suffered heavy losses in its own ongoing conflict with Israel. In addition to hundreds of casualties, Hezbollah’s leadership was severely weakened by Israeli airstrikes, with key figures—including its leader, Hassan Nasrallah—killed. With Hezbollah now withdrawing its fighters from key regions like Homs, Assad’s military position has become untenable.

Abandoned By International Backers

The key international backers of Assad, Russia and Iran, were either distracted or no longer saw value in propping up a weakened regime. Russia, which had delivered crucial military support during the conflict’s earlier years, shifted its focus to Ukraine, leaving Assad exposed. Similarly, Iran, already embroiled in its own regional battles, was unable to provide the same level of military assistance. Both countries, while still nominally aligned with Assad, ultimately failed to provide the decisive force needed to turn the tide.

Turkey, a longtime backer of the Syrian opposition, played a decisive role in this collapse. Initially, President Erdogan sought to mediate a political resolution with Assad. However, after Assad repeatedly rejected these overtures, Turkey recalibrated its approach. Rather than intervening directly in the rebels’ final push, Ankara allowed the opposition to operate freely. In effect, Turkey’s decision to step back allowed the rebels to advance unopposed, dramatically accelerating Assad’s downfall. Erdogan, whose proxies emerged victorious, is now positioned as the ultimate regional winner.

The Rebels: Seizing the Moment

The rebels, led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) coalition, were uniquely positioned to exploit Assad’s weakness. Under the leadership of Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, HTS transformed into a more coherent and powerful fighting force, coordinating their efforts across multiple fronts. The seizure of Aleppo on November 27 marked the beginning of the end for Assad’s regime, with the rebels capturing Hama and Homs before pushing into Damascus. Assad’s military simply could not respond effectively, and the regime collapsed faster than anyone expected.

A Perfect Storm

Assad’s downfall wasn’t the result of a single misstep, but rather the confluence of military decay, weakening international support, and regional dynamics shifting against him. His military, once formidable, became demoralized and fractured. Russia and Iran, his most loyal backers, either failed to act or found themselves preoccupied elsewhere. Hezbollah’s retreat further diminished Assad’s military capacity. In the end, the rebels, well-coordinated and well-positioned, seized the opportunity, and Assad’s regime crumbled almost overnight.

The Syrian landscape has irrevocably changed. The end of Assad’s reign is not just a local victory for the opposition—it’s a shift in the broader Middle East balance of power, one that will have far-reaching implications for years to come. In cities across Syria, jubilant celebrations erupted as people expressed relief and hope for a new beginning after years of suffering under the regime’s rule.

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